According to Can Van Luc, a member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, the credit situation in Vietnam is almost out of control. The State Bank is barely keeping a lid on credit growth, causing high rates to dampen demand for real estate. In H1 of the year, new credit growth amounted to 3.17%, while last year this figure was 8.09%. All this negatively affects the real estate market.
Can Van Luc notes that in the short-term forecast for market recovery, it all comes down to 4 main factors:
- Inflation and interest rates on loans. In the world, they tend to decrease, and Vietnam is also trying to reduce interest rates.
- The state’s economic recovery, which is expected by the end of this year. Forecasts for next year are quite optimistic.
- Adoption of amendments to the Law on Land and the Law on Housing. They are expected to be considered by the National Assembly shortly.
- Growth of public investment in the construction sector.
Can Van Luc believes the property market will recover by the end of this year or early next year at the latest. This process will be gradual.
Economic expert Dr. Dinh The Hien believes that a smooth strengthening of the market is possible with an increase in cash flow, which allows you to confidently spend money on the purchase of housing, and a decrease in the cost of real estate. If sellers maintain the current pricing policy, it will remain unaffordable for most local citizens. Foreign investors, however, are not deterred by such figures. Therefore, they can also contribute to market recovery.
As for the prospect of 2024, Dinh The Hien noted that the situation may change for the better. However, this will mainly happen in urban residential areas.
Experts added that next year, real estate investment cash flow will be clearer. This means that foreign market players will be more active in selling and buying in those locations that have tangible investment potential.