The analytical company VNDirect Securities conducted a study of the dynamics of Vietnam’s real estate market over the past 28 years. Based on the analysed data, it was concluded that the sector follows a cyclical pattern. Every 7 years, the country’s real estate market experiences a surge and subsequent pullback. In the period 1994–1996, there was increased interest in land plots, after which sales fell sharply from 1997 to 1999. The next peak occurred in 2000; in 2003, the market froze, and the crisis lasted until 2006. In 2007–2008, there was a boom again, followed by a decline in 2011–2013. From 2014 to 2019, the market was on the rise, followed by another decline in interest in Vietnamese real estate. It is expected that history will repeat itself and in the near future the situation will begin to change rapidly toward increasing sales.
As the research company notes, since the beginning of July, there has been activity in the real estate market in the southern region in general and Ho Chi Minh City in particular. Due to this, developers have also accelerated the pace of construction. In Q2 2023, the number of properties put up for sale exceeded that of the same period last year.
Tran Khanh Quang, general director of Viet An Hoa, believes that radical changes should not be expected in a short time. However, if in Q4 of this year, the factors supporting the market fully manifest themselves, it will become more active and continue to strengthen. First of all, this relates to the launch of new projects and the increase in the number of offers and demand. The latter will become possible with changes in interest rates on loans. The real estate market is expected to thaw by the end of 2023 but will not yet be as buoyant as in 2019 and earlier.